长短时记忆神经网络在中期地震预报中的探索--以川滇地区为例     

李林芳  石耀霖  程术 《地球物理学报》2022,65(1):12-25

利用机器学习方法对地震活动大数据进行挖掘,识别出一些过去认识不到的异常,提高地震预测的准确性,是一个非常具有挑战性的科学问题.本文基于川滇部分地区(24°N—32°N,98°E—106°E)地震目录,采用滑动的时空窗口,选取16个反映地震时空强度分布特征的地震预测因子,建立了长短时记忆(LSTM)神经网络,对研究区域9个子区块未来一年的最大地震震级进行预测.通过设置训练集∶测试集=8∶2和训练集∶测试集=7∶3两个不同的训练测试模型,对过往发生的地震进行了回溯性预报.结果表明:训练集∶测试集=7∶3模型能够利用1970年1月至2004年9月的地震目录进行学习,成功回溯性预报2008年汶川地震;训练集∶测试集=8∶2模型利用1970年1月至2009年5月资料进行训练,回溯性预报2010—2019年间6级以上地震的R评分为0.407,回溯性7级地震预报时准确率高达92.31%.本文还探讨性给出预测意见:2022年2月前研究区西部、中部、东部、西南部存在发生5.1~5.3级地震的潜在危险性.  相似文献   

2022年1月8日青海门源6.9级地震的震源区结构特征和b值意义初探     

孙安辉  高原  赵国峰  任超  梁姗姗 《地球物理学报》2022,(3)

2022年1月8日1时45分青海省门源县发生M_S6.9地震.本文基于青藏高原东北缘水平分辨率为0.3°的地震层析成像结果,获取了震源周边区域的地壳浅部构造信息,包括波速、泊松比以及估计的裂隙密度和饱和率的空间分布.结果表明:此次门源M_S6.9地震发生在P波和S波波速剧烈变化的区域,靠近高速体的边缘.泊松比和饱和率同样都显示,门源M_S6.9地震发生在高低值变化的过渡区.地震活动参数分析显示,震前冷龙岭断裂带的震源周边区域显示出了低b值、较低的a值和高a/b值的特征,与龙门山—岷山构造带强震之前的情况类似.裂隙密度在冷龙岭断裂两侧呈现出显著差异,北侧高于南侧,这可能是震后现场科考发现的断裂带地表破裂北侧高于南侧的构造成因.  相似文献   

Broadband seismic source data acquisition and processing to delineate iron oxide deposits in the Blötberget mine-central Sweden     

Tatiana Pertuz  Alireza Malehmir  Jordan Bos  Bojan Brodic  Yinshuai Ding  Richard de Kunder  Paul Marsden 《Geophysical Prospecting》2022,70(1):79-94

A prototype electromagnetic vibrator, referred to here as E-Vib, was upgraded and developed for broadband hardrock and mineral exploration seismic surveys. We selected the iron oxide mine in Blötberget, central Sweden, for a test site in 2019 for the newly developed E-Vib because of the availability of earlier seismic datasets (from 2015 to 2016) for verification of its performance for hardrock imaging purposes. The two-dimensional data acquisition consisted of a fixed geometry with 550 receiver locations spaced at every 5 m, employing both cabled and wireless seismic recorders, along an approximately 2.7 km long profile. The E-Vib operated at every second receiver station (i.e. 10 m spacing) with a linear sweep of 2–180 Hz and with a peak force of 7 kN. The processing workflow took advantage of the broadband signal generated by the E-Vib in this challenging hardrock environment with varying ground conditions. The processed seismic section shows a set of reflections associated with the known iron oxide mineralization and a major crosscutting reflection interpreted to be from a fault system likely to be crosscutting the mineralization. The broadband source data acquisition and subsequent processing helped to improve signal quality and resolution in comparison with the earlier workflows and data where a drophammer seismic source was used as the seismic source. These results suggest new possibilities for the E-Vib source for improved targeting in hardrock geological settings.  相似文献   

Multiscale linearized inversion of surface-wave dispersion curves     

Zhinong Wang  Chengyu Sun  Dunshi Wu 《Geophysical Prospecting》2022,70(1):19-34

In recent years, surface-wave analysis method has been developed rapidly in many fields. Multichannel analysis of surface waves can provide near-surface one-dimensional shear-wave velocity profiles. Because linearized inversion of surface-wave dispersion curves relies heavily on the choice of the initial model, setting an inappropriate initial model can lead to poor inversion results, or even failure of inversion. However, it is difficult to establish a reasonable initial model without a priori information, which is unavailable in most cases. To cope with this problem, a multiscale linearized inversion method is proposed for surface-wave dispersion curves inversion. In contrast with the traditional single-scale linearized inversion, the key idea of the proposed multiscale surface-wave inversion method is the introduction of a merging and splitting process of layers. After every scale inversion, the merging and splitting operations automatically optimize the inversion model, making it gradually approach to a reasonable subsurface stratification. Multiscale surface-wave inversion method reduces the difficulty of establishing the initial model and has high computational efficiency. In addition, it has strong ability to identify high-velocity or low-velocity interlayers and thin layers, especially suited for the geological conditions with obvious stratification. In synthetic tests, the proposed method was compared with the single-scale surface-wave inversion and particle swarm optimization algorithm to demonstrate the effectiveness and practicability of multiscale surface-wave inversion method. We also applied the multiscale surface-wave inversion method to field seismic data acquired in Guizhou, China and Texas, USA. Borehole and crosshole test data were compared with the inversion results of field data to prove the reliability of the proposed method.  相似文献   

软土地区双线区间盾构隧道施工对周边地表以及建筑物沉降的影响          下载免费PDF全文

潘涛 《水文地质工程地质》2022,49(1):101-108

研究盾构隧道施工对周围地面以及建筑物沉降造成的影响,是软土地区盾构隧道安全施工和正常运营的基础课题。为了分析宁波轨道交通5号线同德路站—石碶站区间双线盾构隧道施工对周边地表和建筑物的影响,本文在建立盾构隧道动态施工过程三维有限元模型的基础上,基于地表以及建筑物沉降数值模拟结果与现场监测值的对比,分析了隧道开挖对隧道周围地表沉降与建筑物沉降的影响。结果表明,掘进完成时,开挖方向沉降槽往上行线隧道方向偏移、呈现倒梯形形态,横断面影响区域为距离双线隧道轴线中心小于3倍隧道直径;上行线在下行线开挖后并不会增加地表沉降,但增大了沉降槽宽度;下行线到达前产生的沉降占最终累计沉降的67%;当盾构掘进面刚到达建筑物时、建筑物的倾斜方向与盾构掘进方向一致,当盾构掘进面离开建筑物时、建筑物将沿着盾构掘进的反方向倾斜;建筑物两侧沉降值较中部沉降值降低了83%;双线贯通后建筑物沉降呈“U”形分布,最大沉降量发生在远离隧道一侧距建筑物中心0.5 m处。  相似文献   

基于扩展有限元分析的页岩水力压裂裂缝扩展规律探究          下载免费PDF全文

温继伟  项天  朱茂  胡萍  毛建设  荆羽慧 《探矿工程》2022,49(5):177-188

水力压裂是开采地下页岩气资源的有效技术手段,探究页岩水力压裂裂缝的扩展规律,可为页岩气的高效开采提供科学的指导依据。通过运用大型有限元软件ABAQUS中的扩展有限元模块,针对不同地应力差工况条件下均质页岩中初始裂缝的位置、方位角、数量和含层理页岩中层理的构造方向、内部倾角、岩性对水力裂缝扩展的影响进行探究。结果表明：对于垂向扩展的水力裂缝,水平主应力增大使裂缝更不易扩展,裂缝扩展长度减小、起裂压力增大;在注液体积流量相同时,向初始裂缝两端同时起裂所形成的水力裂缝长度大于仅向一侧起裂;当初始裂缝处于页岩中部且呈45°方向时,裂缝会向最大水平主应力方向偏转,且偏转程度随最大水平主应力的增大而增大;分时多簇压裂时,裂缝间的扩展会相互干扰,且会较大地影响裂缝扩展的形态和起裂压力,但对裂缝注液点裂缝宽度的影响较小;对于含水平和竖直构造层理的页岩,改变层理内部倾角,水力裂缝会出现不同程度偏转,且其偏转程度随着层理内部倾角的增大而减小;对于含45°方向构造层理的页岩,水力裂缝在层理分别为砂岩、煤岩和泥岩中的偏转程度依次增大,且裂缝偏移比随着最大水平主应力的增大而增大。  相似文献   

基坑开挖对涉支护结构下穿盾构隧道变形的三维模拟与影响规律研究     

谢晟  韦巡洲 《江苏地质》2022,46(2):214-220

依托某大厦基坑支护工程项目,研究深厚软土地层中基坑开挖对涉支护结构下穿盾构隧道变形的影响规律。采用三维有限元数值模拟分析隧道顶部支护桩的长度对支护结构变形和隧道隆起的影响,并将数值模拟结果与现场监测结果进行对比。结果表明：深厚软土地层中基坑开挖对下穿盾构隧道产生了较大的隆起变形;因下穿隧道的影响,隧道顶部支护桩嵌固深度的减小对支护结构的变形和下穿隧道的隆起会产生重要影响,当支护桩底与隧道顶的竖向间距S＞4 m或支护桩边缘与隧道边缘的水平间距S1＞4 m 时,支护桩的踢脚位移和下穿隧道的隆起变形迅速增加。研究成果可为类似工程提供应用参考和理论支撑。  相似文献   

浑河断裂带地质灾害发育特征及其成因机制     

张田田  杨为民  万飞鹏 《吉林大学学报(地球科学版)》2022,52(1):149-161

浑河断裂带是辽宁抚顺地区最为重要的一条活动断裂。为了深入调查沿浑河断裂带地质灾害发育情况,了解灾害形成与先存断裂之间的关系,为同类型灾害的防治和预警提供科学依据。本文采用现场调查方法,结合地面变形监测资料,厘清了浑河断裂带灾害类型和发育规律,剖析了断裂带灾害的形成机理。研究结果表明：断裂隐伏区地裂缝发育,主要沿浑河断裂带分支断裂展布,裂缝延伸长度300～2 400 m;其成因是抚顺城区南部采矿活动诱发了先存软弱断裂面局部拉裂、张开,进而向地表扩展、贯通,形成地裂缝。在断裂延伸的基岩地区沿断裂破碎带及影响带发育小型滑坡,主滑方向与断裂走向垂直或大角度斜交;其形成机制与岩体内部发育的结构面有关,尤其是顺坡向优势结构面的发育,其与坡体耦合形成易滑结构体,在长期降雨作用下,结构面软化、贯通及岩土体加速蠕滑,最终形成滑坡。  相似文献   

Spatial-Temporal Ground Deformation Study of BaotouBased on the PS-InSAR Method     

GE Weili  LI Yuanjie  WANG Zhichao  ZHANG Chunming  YANG Honglei 《《地质学报》英文版》2021,95(2):674-683

Ground subsidence is an emerging geological hazard in Baotou,Inner Mongolia.Four areas of Baotou with relatively large subsidence range and rate were selected for analysis.Focusing on investigation of ground subsidence using PS-InSAR technology,a total of 43 frames of ALOS PALSAR images yielded a SAR data span from December 2006 to January 2011,allowing ground subsidence scope,subsidence velocity,time-series deformation to be obtained.Major causes and influencing factors of the ground subsidence are closely related to soft soil consolidation and compaction and the decrease in the level of groundwater caused by increased development and utilization of groundwater.  相似文献   

雪宝顶流域钙华景观生态风险评价的研究探讨     

李相邑  代群威  党政  罗尧东  崔杰  董发勤  张婷 《中国岩溶》2021,40(1):140-146

景观生态风险评价能够有效地对区域景观格局进行优化并为风险防范提供理论基础。文献计量学分析表明,国内岩溶景观生态风险评价研究主要从“研究对象”、“评价模型”、“评价方法”和“评价指标”4个方面分析;而钙华作为特殊的岩溶体,目前对它的生态风险评价几乎未开展。文章从岩溶景观生态风险评价入手,基于模糊数学综合评判法和层次分析法,提出以地表钙华体与地表水循环作为景观主体,并对主体因素逐步细化,形成多层次综合评价模型,展开对雪宝顶流域钙华景观的生态风险评价。   相似文献